The world economy is in shambles and yet I find if shocking that what politicians are doing about it is virtually all wrong.  No one is really taking a long term view and interest in fixing the problems that got us here…instead we are massaging the truth and giving people false hope. And as much as I am critical of the banking system and its failure to serve society I think our economies were troubled before the banking crisis. Bankers did what they do best – get greedy, put their self interest above all else and by virtue of their misdoing magnify the problem. But they weren’t necessarily the root cause. continue reading »

I’ve finally decided to write my two pence on what’s become quite a bubbly discussion in itself: are we in another tech bubble?

Let me start by saying rather controversially that first I think this is the wrong question to be asking. Great companies have emerged out of bubbles as we’ve seen in the Web 1.0 phase. Yes there were a lot of failures, busts and losses in early 2000’s; but what we forget is that there have also been big winners whose collective gain outstrips those losses. Companies like eBay, Amazon and Cisco all came out of the first tech bubble and have proven to have strong and sustainable businesses which are still growing. So focus on what YOU are doing not what the herd is doing I say.

And what is a bubble anyway? There are tonnes of text book definitions which ultimately focus on technical definitions like valuation. Are things over-priced and is there too much liquidity being pumped in a sector or asset class? To me these are the wrong definitions. We are at the onset of a paradigm shift (which I explain below) so almost by definition existing valuation models will be wrong, So for me multiples being high means very little. What it comes down to is people getting ahead of themselves and investing in things they don’t fully understand or appreciate – and why? Because someone else is. “Oh I have to jump on this bandwagon…everyone’s doing it” That’s what leads to irrational exuberance . continue reading »

One of the things that the film ‘the social network’ has done is raise a lot of controversy over the valuation of Facebook. Most people who are not in the web space find it astonishing that a company that young which has barely turned a profit is valued at a whopping $25bn! I am one of those believers that Facebook will become the biggest technology company in the world surpassing Microsoft, Apple – both of which have market capitalisations over $200 Bn – and yes even Google (who lags a bit behind with a market cap around $190 Bn) Here’s why.

First lets take a step back. On the face of it companies like Apple, Google and Facebook have little in common other than great tech people and fanatical users. But fundamentally they are enablers of the same thing: allowing people to communicate in easier and better ways and accessing information more readily.continue reading »

Today we’ve had two national newspapers – the Guardian and the Telegraph – both cite research released by PeopelPerHour.com on how the public sector is overspending.

The research was based on a request we put in to every council in the UK back in February to disclose the amount they spend on web-related services which under the Freedom of Information Act they are obliged to provide (yet only 70% of them did!). We then compared those figures with the spend of companies in the private sector running similar sites (or in most cases much more sophisticated).continue reading »

Something interesting is happening in the world today. Whilst the first big step in technological evolution – the industrialization of the early 20th century- pulled masses of people out of their cottages and organised the workforce around large centralized institutions, the second wave underpinned by Information Technology revolution is seemingly reversing that trend and driving people back to their ‘cottage’. How is that?

Let’s take a few innovations that have become integral parts of our personal and business lives. Relatively recent yet ubiquitous innovations – the internet, social networks, the PC even and the mobile phone, or more lately the blackberry – what do all these have in common other than a few microchips? They are increasingly making us more connected, more mobile, more interdependent yet more independent in terms of how where and when we work. And ultimately more in control of our own time and space. So is this rendering the traditional office as we know it obsolete?continue reading »

In a post cold-war era, where capitalism reigns as the dominant force of globalization, never has there been a time where we were in as much control of our own labour as we are now – the very cornerstone of Marx’s Communist Manifesto that argued against capitalism as a force that oppresses workers and denies them the freedom of their own labour. And yet, in a capitalist society where free markets are the driver of economic growth and distribution of wealth, we are now blessed with technological tools that allow us to very simply “be in control” – Marx’s dream albeit in a capitalist society. Is this a paradox? Or is it a convergence of what use to be seen as two opposing school of thoughts? I say – neither.continue reading »

Are we on the brinks of World War III? With the US losing its ground power is being shifted from the West to the emerging economies of the East. China looks set to become the new superpower. Unfortunately, as proven by history, a major shift like this has never occurred without war.

1) A weakening USA

The USA dictates much of what’s happening in the West. Here are the main drivers behind its decline:continue reading »